?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 30 games
83%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 18 games
89%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
iNSaNiA · 13 games
77%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 43 games
72%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 27 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 25 games
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 24 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 21 game
71%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 708 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 465 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
575 picks · 424 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
566 picks · 912 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 399 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 367 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1208 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
499 picks · 1097 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total55% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:20
Team Liquid 54%Gaimin Gladiators 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
56% · 68 games43% · 80 games
Medusadyrachyo
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
57% · 258 games46% · 331 game
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Pugna
PugnaBoxi
55% · 123 games54% · 255 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinzai
44% · 109 games45% · 249 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
48% · 514 games53% · 157 games
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed21:28
Team Liquid 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistmiCKe
51% · 65 games46% · 147 games
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNisha
39% · 103 games48% · 135 games
BloodseekerAce
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
Pangolierzai
48% · 258 games50% · 170 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Chen
CheniNSaNiA
52% · 65 games55% · 23 games
Spirit BreakertOfu
Spirit Breaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
52% · 68 games63% · 84 games
IoSeleri
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 55%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2