?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 31 game
74%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
59%
Luna
Luna
miCKe · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 26 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
53%

Gaimin Gladiators

Sniper
Sniper
Quinn · 25 games
56%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 23 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
63%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
76%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 17 games
41%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 16 games
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
403 picks · 364 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
380 picks · 415 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 540 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
308 picks · 534 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
304 picks · 669 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
300 picks · 620 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
297 picks · 309 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total55% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:20
Team Liquid 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
49% · 144 games52% · 41 game
Clinkzdyrachyo
Clinkz
Doom
Doom33
52% · 148 games44% · 183 games
Dragon KnightQuinn
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
47% · 21 game52% · 54 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
41% · 88 games50% · 96 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
54% · 57 games59% · 84 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Game 2prediction missed21:9
Team Liquid 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
50% · 198 games49% · 93 games
Muertadyrachyo
Muerta
Puck
PuckNisha
50% · 219 games49% · 226 games
Dragon KnightQuinn
Dragon Knight
Visage
Visage33
50% · 31 game50% · 207 games
Primal BeastAce
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
53% · 229 games51% · 119 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Tusk
TuskBoxi
47% · 167 games50% · 199 games
Shadow DemonSeleri
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 55%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2