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BLAST Slam I · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
80%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%

Gaimin Gladiators

Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 21 game
67%
Underlord
Underlord
Ace · 21 game
57%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 18 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 17 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
36%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 688 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 486 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 539 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
349 picks · 180 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 470 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 640 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 325 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head10 – 4
Model total67% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:19
Team Liquid 61%Gaimin Gladiators 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNisha
44% · 86 games50% · 186 games
AlchemistWatson
Alchemist
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
62% · 135 games46% · 214 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
50% · 177 games48% · 49 games
ViperQuinn
Viper
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
50% · 72 games52% · 128 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Tusk
TuskBoxi
46% · 246 games50% · 139 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1