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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 38 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 31 game
74%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 27 games
81%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 36 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 17 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 17 games
41%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 688 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 693 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 305 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 398 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
370 picks · 849 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
369 picks · 974 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
365 picks · 612 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 494 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head11 – 3
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:6
Team Liquid 61%Gaimin Gladiators 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
50% · 151 game47% · 165 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingNisha
53% · 160 games50% · 234 games
TinyQuinn
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzleSabeRLight-
50% · 37 games54% · 80 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
43% · 187 games46% · 92 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
55% · 76 games56% · 40 games
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed22:26
Team Liquid 63%Gaimin Gladiators 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
50% · 181 game56% · 25 games
HuskarQuinn
Huskar
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
50% · 301 game51% · 230 games
BeastmasterWatson
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
49% · 121 game50% · 160 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
55% · 156 games48% · 217 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
49% · 49 games46% · 176 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed18:35
Team Liquid 63%Gaimin Gladiators 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusmiCKe
58% · 167 games58% · 350 games
BristlebackWatson
Bristleback
Sniper
SniperNisha
47% · 142 games50% · 177 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
42% · 273 games53% · 274 games
Monkey KingQuinn
Monkey King
Muerta
MuertaiNSaNiA
44% · 251 game61% · 40 games
Ancient ApparitionMalady
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
TuskBoxi
44% · 268 games48% · 260 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3