The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Geek Famloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 24 games
Enigmasignature
zai · 16 games
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Leshracsignature
miCKe · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 13 games
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 18 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 13 games
Marcisignature
Hishge · 12 games
Tusk
NARMAN · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 12 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
723 picks · 459 bans
Tusk
605 picks · 551 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 455 bans
Treant Protector
509 picks · 567 bans
Mirana
395 picks · 386 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 228 bans
Nature's Prophet
369 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 59%
Hero pool strength60% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:41
Team Liquid 60%Geek Fam 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 59:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seerzai
Drow RangerSkem
LinamiCKe
BatriderForce
Queen of PainNisha
ZeusRoddgeee
Spirit BreakerBoxi
Bounty HunterNARMAN
RubickiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction correct27:8
Team Liquid 59%Geek Fam 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNisha
LinaSkem
WindrangermiCKe
ViperForce
Enigmazai
RubickRoddgeee
TinyBoxi
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2