The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Goonsquadloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 24 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 14 games
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 14 games
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
709 picks · 556 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 656 bans
Marci
496 picks · 779 bans
Puck
475 picks · 1000 bans
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 421 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 399 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 155 bans
Razor
297 picks · 559 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
Team Liquid 53%Goonsquad 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:58.
Game 2prediction correct40:28
Team Liquid 53%Goonsquad 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2