?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 19 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
miCKe · 18 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 10 games
70%
Razor
Razorsignature
qojqva · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
33%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
76%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
418 picks · 950 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
385 picks · 548 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 711 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 562 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
312 picks · 303 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 214 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 282 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
272 picks · 148 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
Team Liquid 46%Hellbear Smashers 54%
The model gave 54% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 23:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSumaiL
56% · 8 games50% · 54 games
Phantom AssassinAce
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
63% · 34 games50% · 8 games
AxeMISERY
Axe
Slardar
Slardarqojqva
54% · 7 games36% · 6 games
ZeusStormstormer
Zeus
Snapfire
SnapfireTaiga
45% · 24 games57% · 3 games
WarlocktOfu
Warlock
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
49% · 30 games42% · 32 games
Dark WillowGilgir
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed31:8
Team Liquid 48%Hellbear Smashers 52%
The model gave 52% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerSumaiL
40% · 19 games48% · 9 games
MedusaAce
Medusa
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidmiCKe
50% · 4 games43% · 6 games
Queen of PainStormstormer
Queen of Pain
Slardar
Slardarqojqva
70% · 6 games45% · 7 games
VenomancerMISERY
Venomancer
Enchantress
EnchantressTaiga
50% · 30 games51% · 13 games
AbaddontOfu
Abaddon
Warlock
WarlockiNSaNiA
50% · 6 games56% · 30 games
Earth SpiritGilgir
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 57%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2