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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 24 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 21 game
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Windranger
Windranger
Boxi · 19 games
53%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
82%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
31%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 16 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 14 games
57%
Lina
Lina
Yuma · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
534 picks · 275 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
490 picks · 495 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 1011 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
333 picks · 380 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
316 picks · 147 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
311 picks · 153 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
311 picks · 531 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
304 picks · 500 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total76% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:21
Team Liquid 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordmiCKe
50% · 57 games57% · 110 games
LycanDavai
Lycan
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
47% · 97 games53% · 190 games
EarthshakerWisper
Earthshaker
Mars
MarsAce
41% · 182 games51% · 50 games
PudgeYuma
Pudge
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
43% · 142 games53% · 48 games
Ancient ApparitionKJ
Ancient Apparition
Naga Siren
Naga SirentOfu
55% · 139 games51% · 219 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed7:39
Team Liquid 63%Heroic 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautmiCKe
49% · 17 games52% · 233 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
44% · 106 games51% · 273 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Invoker
InvokerNisha
49% · 177 games60% · 123 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
48% · 169 games46% · 14 games
Spirit BreakerScofield
Spirit Breaker
Tusk
TuskBoxi
43% · 308 games54% · 134 games
Naga SirenKJ
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction missed21:29
Team Liquid 64%Heroic 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Heroic in 45:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautmiCKe
52% · 32 games52% · 135 games
AbaddonYuma
Abaddon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNisha
46% · 408 games55% · 274 games
BristlebackWisper
Bristleback
Mars
MarsAce
50% · 238 games51% · 94 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
42% · 23 games56% · 189 games
WarlockKJ
Warlock
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
48% · 258 games47% · 267 games
SnapfireScofield
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 76%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3