Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
High Coast Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
qojqva · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
qojqva · 2 games
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
miCKe · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
qojqva · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Taiga · 1 game
High Coast Esports
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Era · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
119 picks · 262 bans
Mars
115 picks · 225 bans
Earth Spirit
103 picks · 84 bans
Void Spirit
97 picks · 151 bans
Phoenix
93 picks · 96 bans
Rubick
78 picks · 36 bans
Keeper of the Light
70 picks · 137 bans
Nyx Assassin
70 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:20
Team Liquid 57%High Coast Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackmiCKe
IoCharlie
BeastmasterBoxi
Outworld DestroyerChessie
Vengeful Spiritqojqva
Monkey KingSupream^
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
UndyingXibbe
TuskTaiga
Nyx AssassinEra
Game 2prediction correct22:2
Team Liquid 57%High Coast Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 23:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritmiCKe
IoCharlie
Viperqojqva
MorphlingSupream^
InvokerBoxi
Dark SeerChessie
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
Earth SpiritEra
TuskTaiga
BristlebackXibbe
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2