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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 47 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 31 game
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 29 games
72%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 26 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 26 games
73%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 40 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 30 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
665 picks · 774 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 522 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 410 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
457 picks · 312 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1119 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
394 picks · 317 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 802 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 597 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:35
Team Liquid 70%HULIGANI 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 49:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
46% · 416 games48% · 542 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
50% · 82 games48% · 113 games
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lifestealer
Axe
AxeAce
52% · 196 games54% · 198 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixtOfu
50% · 216 games51% · 303 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonEkki
51% · 382 games49% · 136 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct32:10
Team Liquid 71%HULIGANI 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertamiCKe
48% · 169 games46% · 258 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
42% · 223 games62% · 48 games
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lifestealer
Slardar
SlardarAce
50% · 224 games48% · 121 game
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Io
IoEkki
41% · 20 games57% · 238 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
53% · 71 game54% · 42 games
VenomancerRESPECT
Venomancer
Game 3prediction missed6:28
Team Liquid 72%HULIGANI 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
53% · 123 games49% · 214 games
BeastmasterCorrupted
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
45% · 287 games46% · 63 games
Lunassnovv1
Luna
Muerta
MuertamiCKe
51% · 209 games46% · 230 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Largo
LargotOfu
58% · 122 games54% · 183 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Io
IoEkki
45% · 17 games48% · 68 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 88%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3