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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 40 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 33 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 32 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 28 games
68%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 25 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 23 games
52%

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 22 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 12 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Wisper · 11 games
64%
Largo
Largooften banned
Wisper · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
519 picks · 370 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
374 picks · 220 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 654 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
334 picks · 355 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
325 picks · 347 bans
60%
Windranger
Windranger
318 picks · 235 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 442 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
294 picks · 335 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Liquid 57%LGD Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 57%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1