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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 33 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 27 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 23 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 29 games
66%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 26 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 25 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 25 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 16 games
69%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 624 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
415 picks · 734 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 159 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 552 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
384 picks · 328 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 741 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 550 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:7
Team Liquid 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNisha
41% · 21 game51% · 206 games
Templar AssassinSupream^
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
Pangolier33
49% · 242 games53% · 30 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
51% · 90 games55% · 234 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
47% · 74 games50% · 105 games
EarthshakerNARMAN
Earthshaker
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
48% · 162 games54% · 14 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct38:27
Team Liquid 67%MOUZ 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNisha
46% · 236 games51% · 234 games
DoomForce
Doom
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
43% · 160 games58% · 150 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Batrider
Batrider33
53% · 336 games51% · 334 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
51% · 184 games45% · 247 games
EnchantressNARMAN
Enchantress
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
50% · 76 games53% · 27 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 80%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2