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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 29 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 27 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 26 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 25 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 23 games
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 20 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
53%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 47 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 36 games
61%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 31 game
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 26 games
54%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 26 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
770 picks · 358 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
595 picks · 608 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
558 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
457 picks · 531 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
451 picks · 274 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 738 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
443 picks · 276 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1139 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 68%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:45
Team Liquid 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidmiCKe
61% · 98 games46% · 222 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Timbersaw
TimbersawAce
55% · 220 games53% · 172 games
Shadow FiendMidOne
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
47% · 341 game45% · 267 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
52% · 418 games46% · 321 game
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
48% · 242 games49% · 337 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct29:24
Team Liquid 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
55% · 203 games50% · 261 game
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
49% · 326 games50% · 127 games
Bounty HunterMidOne
Bounty Hunter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
47% · 212 games47% · 266 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Ringmaster
RingmastertOfu
55% · 179 games48% · 76 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBoxi
54% · 130 games46% · 320 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed22:42
Team Liquid 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
43% · 46 games53% · 110 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNisha
55% · 132 games53% · 76 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
47% · 85 games50% · 97 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Ringmaster
RingmastertOfu
50% · 345 games52% · 228 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
45% · 193 games50% · 290 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 56%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3