BLAST Slam VI · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 3:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 36 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 29 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 18 games
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 29 games
Warlocksignature
Riddys · 28 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
621 picks · 948 bans
Tusk
520 picks · 426 bans
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 626 bans
Shadow Demon
432 picks · 967 bans
Dragon Knight
421 picks · 542 bans
Tiny
409 picks · 461 bans
Warlock
408 picks · 253 bans
Mars
393 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:16
Team Liquid 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorNisha
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
WindrangermiCKe
Phoenixpma
UnderlordAce
Ember SpiritNiku
Shadow DemontOfu
DisruptorRiddys
TuskBoxi
TinyZayac
Game 2prediction missed44:49
Team Liquid 55%Natus Vincere 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:03:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainmiCKe
InvokerNiku
RazorNisha
Templar Assassingotthejuice
WarlocktOfu
Batriderpma
Dark SeerAce
TinyZayac
ClockwerkBoxi
RingmasterRiddys
Game 3prediction correct42:18
Team Liquid 53%Natus Vincere 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezmiCKe
Razorgotthejuice
Void SpiritNisha
InvokerNiku
BatriderAce
Centaur Warrunnerpma
WarlocktOfu
GrimstrokeRiddys
MarciBoxi
HoodwinkZayac
Game 4prediction correct34:10
Team Liquid 57%Natus Vincere 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightmiCKe
Ursagotthejuice
Ember SpiritNisha
Marspma
BatriderAce
PuckNiku
Earth SpiritBoxi
TinyZayac
Shadow DemontOfu
WarlockRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 61%
Series resultTeam Liquid 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4