DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 46 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 29 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 29 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
Batridersignature
Ace · 26 games
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 25 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 25 games
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Riddys · 33 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 22 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 20 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 19 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
639 picks · 694 bans
Tiny
514 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
489 picks · 401 bans
Warlock
433 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
415 picks · 378 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1088 bans
Puck
388 picks · 824 bans
Mars
382 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total73% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:37
Team Liquid 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 52:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinymiCKe
Templar Assassingotthejuice
DawnbreakerAce
InvokerNiku
Queen of PainNisha
Slardarpma
RubicktOfu
Treant ProtectorRiddys
LionEkki
Shadow DemonDaze
Game 2prediction correct40:11
Team Liquid 62%Natus Vincere 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritNisha
Templar Assassingotthejuice
LifestealermiCKe
KezNiku
SlardarAce
Underlordpma
HoodwinkEkki
RubickDaze
OracletOfu
Treant ProtectorRiddys
Game 3prediction missed11:33
Team Liquid 63%Natus Vincere 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangermiCKe
Broodmothergotthejuice
Void SpiritNisha
Batriderpma
LycanAce
Ember SpiritNiku
RubicktOfu
Shadow DemonDaze
TuskEkki
GrimstrokeRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 73%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3