ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 15 games
Pucksignature
miCKe · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 8 games
Tusk
Taiga · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iNSaNiA · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 7 games
Neon Esports
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 10 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Yopaj · 8 games
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 8 games
Mirana
Skem · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Skem · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
435 picks · 992 bans
Void Spirit
412 picks · 602 bans
Mars
360 picks · 640 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 626 bans
Earth Spirit
320 picks · 277 bans
Rubick
263 picks · 176 bans
Wraith King
258 picks · 425 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 367 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:29
Team Liquid 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekermiCKe
Nature's ProphetSkem
Storm Spiritqojqva
PuckYopaj
MarsBoxi
LeshracDeth
Earth SpiritTaiga
PangolierPlayHard
Death ProphetiNSaNiA
OracleJaunuel
Game 2prediction missed15:39
Team Liquid 52%Neon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritmiCKe
Nature's ProphetSkem
Razorqojqva
BatriderYopaj
TinyTaiga
LeshracDeth
AlchemistBoxi
Earth SpiritPlayHard
Death ProphetiNSaNiA
OracleJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 51%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2