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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
76%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 22 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
61%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
GH · 19 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 18 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
GH · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 660 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 463 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
354 picks · 450 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 526 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
328 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
320 picks · 397 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 649 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
297 picks · 309 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:30
Team Liquid 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
49% · 120 games44% · 200 games
GyrocopterMiracle-
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerNisha
50% · 171 game57% · 87 games
SniperSumaiL
Sniper
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
46% · 276 games48% · 54 games
DawnbreakerNo!ob
Dawnbreaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
49% · 296 games56% · 275 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
56% · 56 games47% · 303 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 81%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1