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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
OGloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
miCKe · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Taiga · 4 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Taiga · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
miCKe · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 3 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 3 games
33%

OG

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Saksa · 5 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Saksa · 5 games
20%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Topson · 4 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 673 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
316 picks · 388 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
265 picks · 465 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
245 picks · 205 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
217 picks · 118 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
215 picks · 321 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
212 picks · 631 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 243 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total52% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:10
Team Liquid 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 22:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckmiCKe
47% · 76 games45% · 44 games
BatriderCeb
Batrider
Timbersaw
TimbersawBoxi
50% · 21 game51% · 37 games
PangolierTopson
Pangolier
Razor
Razorqojqva
41% · 7 games50% · 4 games
LunaMidOne
Luna
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
49% · 32 games56% · 26 games
AlchemistSaksa
Alchemist
Tiny
TinyTaiga
43% · 6 games61% · 31 game
Enchantressn0tail
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 52%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1