The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 30 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 14 games
OG
Razorsignature
ATF · 27 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 24 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 17 games
Vipersignature
ATF · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
517 picks · 399 bans
Marci
459 picks · 704 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 469 bans
Undying
290 picks · 491 bans
Puck
288 picks · 702 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 395 bans
Enigma
258 picks · 832 bans
Snapfire
255 picks · 134 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:43
Team Liquid 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Templar AssassinYuragi
PudgeMATUMBAMAN
Batriderbzm
Enigmazai
PangolierATF
ClockwerkBoxi
SilencerTaiga
Witch DoctoriNSaNiA
EnchantressMisha
Game 2prediction missed48:17
Team Liquid 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Arc WardenYuragi
Broodmotherzai
Magnusbzm
Death ProphetMATUMBAMAN
RazorATF
TuskBoxi
EarthshakerTaiga
SnapfireiNSaNiA
UndyingMisha
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2