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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 3:0
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 3:0
PARIVISIONloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 43 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 29 games
69%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silencer
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 38 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 29 games
83%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
69%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 22 games
55%
Slark
Slarksignature
9Class · 22 games
82%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Dukalis · 21 game
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 539 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
447 picks · 494 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
433 picks · 229 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
389 picks · 287 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 361 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
366 picks · 809 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 516 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 526 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength58% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 11
Model total76% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:18
Team Liquid 35%PARIVISION 65%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
47% · 181 game48% · 188 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
55% · 183 games45% · 180 games
DawnbreakerDM
Dawnbreaker
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
43% · 48 games50% · 63 games
LeshracNo[o]ne
Leshrac
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTobi
60% · 96 games46% · 160 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
51% · 172 games54% · 89 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Game 2prediction missed31:10
Team Liquid 35%PARIVISION 65%
The model gave 65% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
56% · 161 game44% · 123 games
LinaSatanic
Lina
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
46% · 122 games42% · 161 game
KunkkaNo[o]ne
Kunkka
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
49% · 121 game48% · 96 games
BrewmasterDM
Brewmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTobi
61% · 141 game50% · 206 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
56% · 186 games48% · 145 games
DawnbreakerDukalis
Dawnbreaker
Game 3prediction missed29:19
Team Liquid 34%PARIVISION 66%
The model gave 66% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoommiCKe
60% · 198 games48% · 51 game
LifestealerSatanic
Lifestealer
Huskar
HuskarNisha
49% · 38 games47% · 208 games
TinyNo[o]ne
Tiny
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
49% · 63 games49% · 99 games
Dark SeerDM
Dark Seer
Marci
MarciBoxi
41% · 91 game52% · 45 games
PugnaDukalis
Pugna
Bane
BaneTobi
60% · 43 games42% · 30 games
Slark9Class
Slark
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 76%
Series resultTeam Liquid 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3