FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISIONloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
Tusk
Boxi · 21 game
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 19 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 19 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
PARIVISION
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 24 games
Dark Seersignature
DM · 20 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 20 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 20 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 18 games
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
677 picks · 327 bans
Disruptor
571 picks · 585 bans
Hoodwink
444 picks · 228 bans
Puck
409 picks · 1162 bans
Mars
381 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 256 bans
Warlock
354 picks · 156 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 399 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 11
Model total61% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:10
Team Liquid 42%PARIVISION 58%
The model gave 58% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNisha
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
KezmiCKe
LifestealerSatanic
Centaur WarrunnerAce
BeastmasterDM
BatridertOfu
Monkey King9Class
TuskBoxi
JakiroDukalis
Game 2prediction missed47:31
Team Liquid 43%PARIVISION 57%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanAce
MeepoSatanic
Queen of PainNisha
EarthshakerNo[o]ne
KezmiCKe
EnigmaDM
Winter WyverntOfu
DisruptorDukalis
TuskBoxi
Alchemist9Class
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 61%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2