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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 36 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
65%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 35 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 31 game
58%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 23 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 21 game
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
512 picks · 335 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
452 picks · 976 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
415 picks · 933 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 863 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 351 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1003 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total62% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:14
Team Liquid 60%Shopify Rebellion 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
56% · 293 games51% · 97 games
UrsaArteezy
Ursa
Razor
RazormiCKe
55% · 120 games36% · 292 games
SnapfireAbed
Snapfire
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
52% · 110 games44% · 159 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
51% · 364 games44% · 351 game
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Io
IoiNSaNiA
63% · 108 games54% · 96 games
OracleFly
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed11:27
Team Liquid 56%Shopify Rebellion 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
45% · 205 games56% · 260 games
Naga SirenArteezy
Naga Siren
Broodmother
Broodmotherzai
45% · 202 games50% · 219 games
TimbersawSabeRLight-
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNisha
49% · 142 games54% · 243 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
46% · 311 games60% · 117 games
VenomancerFly
Venomancer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
45% · 132 games51% · 153 games
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2