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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 39 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 37 games
73%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 29 games
72%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
73%
Silencer
Silencersignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 20 games
45%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 19 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Yopaj · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
500 picks · 491 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 571 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
381 picks · 184 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
296 picks · 551 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
275 picks · 381 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
265 picks · 156 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
263 picks · 514 bans
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
259 picks · 677 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total59% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Team Liquid 54%Shopify Rebellion 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenV-Tune
48% · 271 game51% · 286 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyNisha
48% · 642 games57% · 285 games
Storm SpiritYopaj
Storm Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
45% · 195 games53% · 280 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Ringmaster
RingmasterBoxi
46% · 228 games53% · 317 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
49% · 252 games50% · 420 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed26:38
Team Liquid 54%Shopify Rebellion 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 48:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyV-Tune
43% · 347 games50% · 207 games
Nature's ProphetTimado
Nature's Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingNisha
53% · 184 games49% · 323 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
50% · 100 games64% · 155 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
46% · 135 games52% · 50 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
44% · 214 games49% · 245 games
RingmasterHellscream
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2