PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
South America Rejectsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 46 games
Tinysignature
Boxi · 33 games
Kezsignature
miCKe · 30 games
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
Batridersignature
Ace · 24 games
South America Rejects
Hoodwink
Scofield · 12 games
Grimstroke
Scofield · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 10 games
Doomsignature
Frank · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Wits · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
600 picks · 517 bans
Tiny
533 picks · 413 bans
Phoenix
491 picks · 540 bans
Hoodwink
486 picks · 246 bans
Tusk
464 picks · 408 bans
Puck
392 picks · 915 bans
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 995 bans
Warlock
387 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:8
Team Liquid 69%South America Rejects 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterNisha
KunkkaDarkMago
Queen of PainmiCKe
TinyWits
PangolierAce
ViperFrank
RubickEkki
RingmasterElmisho
PhoenixtOfu
TuskScofield
Game 2prediction correct35:43
Team Liquid 72%South America Rejects 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainNisha
ViperDarkMago
WindrangermiCKe
KezWits
UnderlordAce
SlardarFrank
TusktOfu
PhoenixElmisho
HoodwinkEkki
Shadow DemonScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 85%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2