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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
SumaiL · 9 games
44%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
14%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 7 games
57%
Axe
Axe
Boxi · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Taiga · 6 games
17%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Taiga · 6 games
50%

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 20 games
45%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
280 picks · 421 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
268 picks · 397 bans
44%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 656 bans
60%
Bane
Bane
244 picks · 187 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
233 picks · 457 bans
55%
Lina
Lina
212 picks · 477 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
211 picks · 257 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
208 picks · 107 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:7
Team Liquid 52%Spider Pigzs 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracmiCKe
45% · 182 games54% · 47 games
DoomNo!ob
Doom
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMATUMBAMAN
46% · 93 games51% · 67 games
Wraith KingThuG
Wraith King
Pudge
Pudgezai
50% · 10 games47% · 82 games
TimbersawFunn1k
Timbersaw
Io
IoBoxi
54% · 134 games56% · 108 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Dazzle
DazzleiNSaNiA
43% · 6 games50% · 121 game
Grimstrokednz
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Team Liquid 52%Spider Pigzs 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMATUMBAMAN
50% · 37 games52% · 40 games
KunkkaThuG
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritmiCKe
46% · 165 games60% · 117 games
Ember SpiritNo!ob
Ember Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerzai
40% · 33 games58% · 103 games
BeastmasterFunn1k
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
50% · 154 games49% · 88 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
42% · 24 games45% · 65 games
Disruptordnz
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 59%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2