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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 24 games
63%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 22 games
55%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 18 games
72%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 24 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 16 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 12 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
465 picks · 202 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
445 picks · 832 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 666 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 591 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 176 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 699 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 621 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
384 picks · 296 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total54% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
Team Liquid 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealermiCKe
45% · 150 games50% · 179 games
SvenAkashi
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
50% · 327 games54% · 144 games
Dragon KnightCHYuan
Dragon Knight
Slardar
Slardar33
47% · 69 games48% · 194 games
MarsWs
Mars
Rubick
RubickBoxi
50% · 306 games44% · 200 games
PhoenixPonyo
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
64% · 53 games51% · 188 games
GrimstrokeJhocam
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct30:5
Team Liquid 50%Talon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
49% · 295 games59% · 153 games
MedusaAkashi
Medusa
Luna
LunamiCKe
50% · 197 games47% · 147 games
Dragon KnightCHYuan
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckNisha
50% · 182 games50% · 286 games
PangolierWs
Pangolier
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
48% · 81 game52% · 175 games
GrimstrokeJhocam
Grimstroke
Tusk
TuskBoxi
40% · 150 games55% · 144 games
DisruptorPonyo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 54%
Accuracy by game2 of 2