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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 39 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 31 game
74%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 29 games
79%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 27 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Natsumi · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 793 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 322 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
443 picks · 677 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
428 picks · 779 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
404 picks · 874 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
402 picks · 382 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 528 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 1075 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total65% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
Team Liquid 59%Talon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
46% · 106 games41% · 17 games
Wraith KingNatsumi
Wraith King
Tiny
Tinybryle-
52% · 257 games53% · 302 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
49% · 91 game49% · 137 games
TidehunterWs
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
52% · 50 games51% · 142 games
WindrangerJhocam
Windranger
Clockwerk
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
49% · 203 games51% · 109 games
Bounty HunterKuku
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct40:25
Team Liquid 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
49% · 398 games50% · 199 games
Templar AssassinMikoto
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbryle-
54% · 216 games54% · 137 games
TidehunterNatsumi
Tidehunter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
44% · 196 games53% · 317 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Phoenix
PhoenixiNSaNiA
54% · 319 games52% · 210 games
WindrangerJhocam
Windranger
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
41% · 287 games50% · 553 games
ClockwerkKuku
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 65%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2