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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 44 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 30 games
70%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Boxi · 23 games
43%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 48 games
52%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 37 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
59%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 25 games
48%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
497 picks · 530 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 458 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 360 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 513 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
347 picks · 198 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
344 picks · 725 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 460 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
307 picks · 195 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total67% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:30
Team Liquid 61%Team Falcons 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
49% · 289 games55% · 207 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
45% · 115 games63% · 205 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
50% · 230 games44% · 183 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
47% · 296 games46% · 152 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
51% · 295 games49% · 478 games
TuskSneyking
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed12:38
Team Liquid 60%Team Falcons 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
56% · 169 games53% · 290 games
BeastmasterMalr1ne
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
45% · 143 games45% · 79 games
RazorATF
Razor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
51% · 180 games53% · 130 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Warlock
WarlockiNSaNiA
52% · 152 games46% · 137 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
55% · 337 games44% · 345 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 67%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2