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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 41 game
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 27 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 22 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 21 game
62%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 34 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 29 games
66%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 24 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
628 picks · 994 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 437 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 632 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 492 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
449 picks · 1059 bans
55%
Warlock
Warlock
440 picks · 281 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
421 picks · 580 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 505 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 7
Model total67% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:2
Team Liquid 58%Team Falcons 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 21:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
46% · 66 games52% · 277 games
BristlebackMalr1ne
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
47% · 376 games58% · 281 game
Shadow FiendSkiter
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsAce
49% · 297 games51% · 266 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
54% · 251 game50% · 379 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Warlock
WarlocktOfu
47% · 388 games43% · 175 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct37:12
Team Liquid 60%Team Falcons 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
54% · 379 games54% · 337 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
50% · 413 games47% · 179 games
KezSkiter
Kez
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
54% · 411 games46% · 642 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
51% · 656 games50% · 474 games
WindrangerCr1t-
Windranger
Tusk
TuskBoxi
47% · 516 games46% · 743 games
WarlockSneyking
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2