?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 45 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 31 game
68%
Kez
Kezsignature
miCKe · 30 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 24 games
67%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 33 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 23 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 537 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
536 picks · 410 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 543 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
478 picks · 241 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
471 picks · 415 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
393 picks · 244 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1017 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 917 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total51% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:25
Team Liquid 51%Team Falcons 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:03:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidmiCKe
63% · 43 games55% · 148 games
Monkey KingATF
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
50% · 309 games49% · 59 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Underlord
UnderlordAce
43% · 173 games50% · 79 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickEkki
48% · 204 games50% · 189 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Oracle
OracletOfu
44% · 28 games51% · 282 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed33:13
Team Liquid 48%Team Falcons 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
53% · 145 games42% · 214 games
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
49% · 230 games47% · 240 games
Monkey KingSkiter
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierAce
39% · 281 game55% · 234 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
53% · 64 games59% · 210 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
51% · 318 games54% · 140 games
SilencerSneyking
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 51%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2