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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 47 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 29 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 29 games
55%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 27 games
74%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 26 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 25 games
60%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 23 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 18 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 17 games
65%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
649 picks · 691 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
526 picks · 453 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 422 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
438 picks · 435 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
436 picks · 289 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1118 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
400 picks · 869 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
398 picks · 180 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Team Liquid 73%Team Lynx 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidmiCKe
63% · 4 games52% · 172 games
Ursa7jesu
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordAce
46% · 139 games50% · 37 games
Death Prophetmellojul
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
46% · 300 games46% · 167 games
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
Slardar
Largo
LargotOfu
57% · 68 games59% · 29 games
Venomancerkreker
Venomancer
Lion
LionEkki
50% · 78 games51% · 184 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct38:20
Team Liquid 70%Team Lynx 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
44% · 328 games45% · 193 games
Muerta7jesu
Muerta
Underlord
UnderlordAce
46% · 228 games51% · 475 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinymiCKe
46% · 468 games47% · 259 games
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
GrimstroketOfu
61% · 69 games50% · 165 games
Dazzlekreker
Dazzle
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonEkki
60% · 362 games51% · 363 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 86%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2