Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Boxi · 7 games
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 6 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 6 games
Miranasignature
Boxi · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
miCKe · 6 games
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 12 games
Iooften banned
Puppey · 10 games
Tinysignature
YapzOr · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
YapzOr · 9 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 9 games
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 8 games
Outworld Destroyersignature
iceiceice · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
467 picks · 307 bans
Queen of Pain
426 picks · 529 bans
Weaver
374 picks · 566 bans
Mars
368 picks · 509 bans
Kunkka
299 picks · 492 bans
Spirit Breaker
278 picks · 515 bans
Wraith King
258 picks · 348 bans
Snapfire
253 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:30
Team Liquid 50%Team Secret 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 51:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMATUMBAMAN
GyrocopterSumaiL
PuckmiCKe
Ember SpiritNisha
Tidehunterzai
Keeper of the LightPuppey
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Sand Kingiceiceice
WeaverBoxi
MiranaYapzOr
Game 2prediction missed8:28
Team Liquid 51%Team Secret 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyMATUMBAMAN
Death ProphetNisha
Monkey Kingzai
Faceless VoidSumaiL
InvokermiCKe
Venomancericeiceice
Shadow DemonBoxi
EnchantressPuppey
OmniknightiNSaNiA
PangolierYapzOr
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2