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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 21 game
81%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 18 games
78%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 17 games
82%

Team Secret

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 8 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 6 games
83%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
767 picks · 604 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 456 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 379 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
421 picks · 981 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 923 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
396 picks · 595 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
394 picks · 670 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
389 picks · 561 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total85% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:11
Team Liquid 70%Team Secret 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidNisha
70% · 38 games52% · 57 games
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Terrorblade
Magnus
Magnuszai
42% · 75 games42% · 99 games
Ember SpiritArmel
Ember Spirit
Riki
RikimiCKe
53% · 98 games63% · 88 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Clinkz
ClinkzBoxi
43% · 14 games46% · 36 games
Skywrath Mageyamich
Skywrath Mage
Lich
LichiNSaNiA
44% · 70 games44% · 15 games
Winter WyvernPuppey
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct18:24
Team Liquid 73%Team Secret 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 52:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusamiCKe
52% · 27 games51% · 45 games
LifestealerCrystallis
Lifestealer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
43% · 83 games52% · 184 games
PangolierArmel
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerzai
53% · 118 games55% · 26 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
44% · 109 games56% · 43 games
Techiesyamich
Techies
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
51% · 24 games48% · 63 games
PugnaPuppey
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 85%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2