WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 20 games
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
Tinysignature
Taiga · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 11 games
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 10 games
Team Spirit
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Miranasignature
Mira · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
406 picks · 639 bans
Lion
401 picks · 222 bans
Puck
400 picks · 995 bans
Grimstroke
374 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
353 picks · 194 bans
Tiny
309 picks · 219 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 219 bans
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 69%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:8
Team Liquid 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Phantom LancerYatoro
Broodmotherqojqva
Dragon KnightTORONTOTOKYO
TinymiCKe
KunkkaCollapse
SnapfireTaiga
LionMira
OracleiNSaNiA
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed28:17
Team Liquid 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinSumaiL
TerrorbladeYatoro
AxemiCKe
LinaTORONTOTOKYO
Broodmotherqojqva
MarsCollapse
PhoenixTaiga
JakiroMiposhka
OracleiNSaNiA
TuskMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2