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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 3:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Team Spiritloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
80%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 22 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 21 game
57%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 19 games
53%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 22 games
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 21 game
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malik · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 680 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 475 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 545 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
358 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
338 picks · 177 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 438 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
325 picks · 657 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 322 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total57% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:21
Team Liquid 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusmiCKe
52% · 105 games55% · 212 games
AlchemistSatanic
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawSabeRLight-
47% · 132 games59% · 83 games
DawnbreakerMalik
Dawnbreaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
51% · 183 games50% · 253 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Pugna
PugnaiNSaNiA
46% · 110 games46% · 169 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
44% · 231 game50% · 44 games
LichMiposhka
Lich
Game 2prediction correct45:21
Team Liquid 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 51:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
50% · 103 games48% · 81 game
MedusaSatanic
Medusa
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
50% · 20 games55% · 48 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNisha
47% · 105 games47% · 100 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
43% · 49 games61% · 55 games
Nyx Assassinrue
Nyx Assassin
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
47% · 109 games54% · 102 games
PugnaMiposhka
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct40:13
Team Liquid 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
51% · 189 games49% · 121 game
Shadow FiendSatanic
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
58% · 141 game57% · 104 games
Earth SpiritLarl
Earth Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
53% · 126 games46% · 165 games
PhoenixMalik
Phoenix
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
49% · 74 games43% · 167 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
49% · 209 games48% · 182 games
TuskMiposhka
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 57%
Series resultTeam Liquid 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3