?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 27 games
56%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 18 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 18 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 15 games
60%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 21 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 18 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 18 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 16 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 16 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
576 picks · 923 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 411 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 659 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
490 picks · 631 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
422 picks · 910 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 629 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 519 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
365 picks · 224 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 68%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total60% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:36
Team Liquid 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
VipermiCKe
55% · 98 games48% · 171 game
GyrocopterYatoro
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
48% · 241 game45% · 170 games
BatriderCollapse
Batrider
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
51% · 352 games56% · 155 games
SlardarMirele
Slardar
Naga Siren
Naga SirentOfu
62% · 200 games43% · 336 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
45% · 216 games47% · 275 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed33:8
Team Liquid 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarNisha
55% · 69 games48% · 203 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Razor
RazormiCKe
55% · 71 game48% · 121 game
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Mars
MarsAce
49% · 251 game47% · 257 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyBoxi
48% · 481 game53% · 169 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Largo
LargotOfu
43% · 16 games49% · 138 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct17:39
Team Liquid 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
44% · 280 games49% · 105 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Kez
KezmiCKe
59% · 49 games49% · 288 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordAce
53% · 132 games47% · 280 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Largo
LargotOfu
60% · 20 games51% · 195 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskBoxi
50% · 484 games47% · 97 games
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 60%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3