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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 14 games
57%
Lycan
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
miCKe · 13 games
54%
Medusa
Medusasignature
miCKe · 13 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 13 games
69%

Team Tickles

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
NARMAN · 7 games
86%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 6 games
83%
Sven
Svensignature
Shad · 6 games
83%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 5 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
NARMAN · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
224 picks · 101 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 270 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
220 picks · 261 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
190 picks · 411 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
189 picks · 405 bans
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
187 picks · 245 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
172 picks · 269 bans
47%
Sven
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Team Liquid 69%Team Tickles 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightmiCKe
64% · 28 games54% · 37 games
LunaUlnit
Luna
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
51% · 147 games65% · 17 games
NecrophosLorenof
Necrophos
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNisha
48% · 62 games44% · 59 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Weaver
WeaverBoxi
42% · 30 games57% · 103 games
PugnaNARMAN
Pugna
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
45% · 72 games44% · 123 games
PhoenixDukalis
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct23:8
Team Liquid 68%Team Tickles 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
57% · 66 games55% · 35 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker33
50% · 140 games44% · 252 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
45% · 106 games48% · 194 games
BeastmasterForce
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
44% · 143 games56% · 204 games
Nature's ProphetDukalis
Nature's Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
52% · 293 games52% · 63 games
GrimstrokeNARMAN
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 83%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2