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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 36 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
72%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 45 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 26 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 15 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 15 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
505 picks · 331 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
452 picks · 978 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
407 picks · 932 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 860 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
383 picks · 1011 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 27%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:30
Team Liquid 62%TSM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 53:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanmiCKe
48% · 164 games52% · 74 games
JuggernautTimado
Juggernaut
Timbersaw
Timbersawzai
60% · 293 games52% · 322 games
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireNisha
40% · 566 games51% · 176 games
Broodmotherkasane
Broodmother
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
48% · 385 games51% · 333 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
50% · 94 games49% · 597 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed6:22
Team Liquid 59%TSM 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by TSM in 28:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
43% · 271 game53% · 240 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Sven
SvenmiCKe
50% · 43 games51% · 214 games
Leshracbryle-
Leshrac
Razor
Razorzai
52% · 59 games56% · 100 games
Dark Seerkasane
Dark Seer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
49% · 100 games50% · 131 game
Spirit BreakerAri
Spirit Breaker
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
47% · 301 game51% · 89 games
IoWhitemon
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2