Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 3 games
Tusk
Taiga · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
miCKe · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
qojqva · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
qojqva · 2 games
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 2 games
Tundra Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
166 picks · 374 bans
Mars
162 picks · 294 bans
Earth Spirit
151 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
141 picks · 208 bans
Phoenix
127 picks · 145 bans
Nyx Assassin
111 picks · 372 bans
Keeper of the Light
109 picks · 198 bans
Rubick
104 picks · 56 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:31
Team Liquid 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingmiCKe
UrsaSkiter
Death Prophetqojqva
GrimstrokeNine
SlardarBoxi
Beastmaster33
RubickiNSaNiA
Keeper of the LightFata
TuskTaiga
Game 2prediction missed25:33
Team Liquid 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorblademiCKe
Wraith KingSkiter
Leshracqojqva
Void SpiritNine
BatriderBoxi
Abaddon33
Earth SpiritTaiga
Keeper of the LightFata
OracleiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 63%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2