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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 13 games
46%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 10 games
90%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
zai · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 8 games
13%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 22 games
55%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 21 game
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 18 games
83%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 16 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 15 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 435 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
481 picks · 701 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 297 bans
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 531 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 612 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 604 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
367 picks · 531 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
346 picks · 764 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total74% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:5
Team Liquid 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMATUMBAMAN
52% · 246 games52% · 109 games
RazorSkiter
Razor
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightzai
46% · 145 games55% · 90 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Marci
MarcimiCKe
49% · 29 games61% · 68 games
Faceless VoidNine
Faceless Void
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBoxi
39% · 76 games56% · 141 game
WeaverSaksa
Weaver
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
39% · 25 games47% · 113 games
IoSneyking
Io
Game 2prediction correct19:23
Team Liquid 31%Tundra Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMATUMBAMAN
30% · 18 games43% · 119 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Viper
Viperzai
46% · 94 games57% · 277 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritmiCKe
50% · 222 games59% · 135 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyBoxi
44% · 250 games54% · 119 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyverniNSaNiA
46% · 107 games61% · 41 game
MarciSaksa
Marci
Game 3prediction missed36:11
Team Liquid 33%Tundra Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
50% · 28 games55% · 51 game
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Leshrac
LeshracmiCKe
30% · 66 games68% · 34 games
Visage33
Visage
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightzai
51% · 107 games51% · 67 games
InvokerNine
Invoker
Marci
MarciBoxi
45% · 37 games55% · 93 games
Monkey KingSaksa
Monkey King
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
40% · 11 games63% · 4 games
DazzleSneyking
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 74%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3