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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 30 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
79%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 18 games
83%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 16 games
81%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
88%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
76%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 19 games
68%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 16 games
81%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
822 picks · 578 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
597 picks · 408 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
523 picks · 550 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 419 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
482 picks · 781 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
432 picks · 893 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
431 picks · 306 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 286 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total67% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:19
Team Liquid 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 53:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangermiCKe
38% · 73 games57% · 120 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
39% · 107 games50% · 48 games
AbaddonSkiter
Abaddon
Death Prophet
Death Prophetzai
48% · 199 games51% · 126 games
ZeusNine
Zeus
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
45% · 55 games59% · 86 games
EarthshakerSaksa
Earthshaker
Rubick
RubickBoxi
50% · 269 games60% · 323 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Team Liquid 60%Tundra Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
49% · 147 games49% · 138 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
55% · 305 games42% · 158 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawNisha
54% · 172 games47% · 444 games
TuskNine
Tusk
Rubick
RubickBoxi
52% · 543 games44% · 291 game
HoodwinkSaksa
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
54% · 214 games52% · 350 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2