Elite League · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Lunasignature
miCKe · 24 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Rubick
Boxi · 20 games
Brewmastersignature
33 · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 15 games
Muerta
Boxi · 13 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 37 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 27 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 23 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 21 game
Batridersignature
9Class · 16 games
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 15 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
493 picks · 789 bans
Batrider
461 picks · 957 bans
Tiny
457 picks · 600 bans
Crystal Maiden
454 picks · 200 bans
Techies
450 picks · 346 bans
Mars
445 picks · 707 bans
Rubick
438 picks · 205 bans
Pangolier
426 picks · 728 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 5
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:39
Team Liquid 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeavermiCKe
SniperPure~
Doom33
ZeusTopson
Earth SpiritNisha
BrewmasterTobi
Dark WillowBoxi
ClockwerkWhitemon
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Rubick9Class
Game 2prediction missed20:23
Team Liquid 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Drow RangerPure~
PangolierNisha
Primal BeastTopson
Dark Seer33
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
IoBoxi
Rubick9Class
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
UndyingWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2