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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 39 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 38 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 33 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 31 game
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 28 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 25 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 24 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 46 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 43 games
84%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 31 game
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 30 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 30 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 29 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 682 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
396 picks · 396 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
364 picks · 736 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
330 picks · 199 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
329 picks · 629 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 554 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
306 picks · 578 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 396 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 69%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:16
Team Liquid 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
43% · 158 games55% · 122 games
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
42% · 156 games49% · 133 games
Medusabzm
Medusa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
49% · 156 games52% · 182 games
Doom33
Doom
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
50% · 75 games58% · 114 games
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Nyx Assassin
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
50% · 133 games53% · 127 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed38:23
Team Liquid 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
51% · 131 game50% · 151 game
TerrorbladeCrystallis
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNisha
55% · 141 game55% · 194 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
40% · 80 games52% · 174 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
47% · 129 games42% · 43 games
TinkerWhitemon
Tinker
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
50% · 127 games54% · 46 games
SlarkSaksa
Slark
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2