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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 24 games
42%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 24 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 24 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 34 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 33 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 33 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 30 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 25 games
52%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
33 · 24 games
54%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
422 picks · 346 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
339 picks · 180 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 780 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
330 picks · 324 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
314 picks · 820 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
271 picks · 617 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
270 picks · 542 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 354 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 4
Model total63% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:31
Team Liquid 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 53:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
56% · 237 games49% · 159 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingNisha
51% · 169 games38% · 13 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
48% · 85 games48% · 140 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
50% · 128 games48% · 262 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
49% · 111 games53% · 156 games
PugnaTobi
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct41:34
Team Liquid 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:08:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNisha
53% · 120 games51% · 204 games
Monkey Kingbzm
Monkey King
Marci
MarcimiCKe
48% · 122 games51% · 17 games
Faceless VoidCrystallis
Faceless Void
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
51% · 102 games52% · 154 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Snapfire
SnapfireBoxi
45% · 107 games48% · 141 game
HoodwinkSaksa
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
50% · 140 games51% · 75 games
BaneTobi
Bane
Game 3prediction missed7:25
Team Liquid 59%Tundra Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
54% · 343 games49% · 172 games
MarciCrystallis
Marci
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
52% · 104 games47% · 210 games
Queen of Painbzm
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
52% · 181 game49% · 274 games
Phoenix33
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
55% · 188 games47% · 315 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
49% · 317 games45% · 162 games
WarlockTobi
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 63%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3