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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 37 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 33 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 28 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 23 games
78%

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 21 game
48%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xm · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 16 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 15 games
40%
Muerta
Muertasignature
shiro · 13 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 331 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
505 picks · 590 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 370 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 221 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
389 picks · 285 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 880 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 306 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 853 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total79% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:34
Team Liquid 68%Vici Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
55% · 220 games51% · 264 games
Terrorbladeshiro
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
45% · 434 games44% · 196 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Slardar
SlardarAce
53% · 375 games51% · 410 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Largo
LargotOfu
60% · 110 games50% · 525 games
HoodwinkXinQ
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickBoxi
47% · 317 games47% · 61 game
Lichy`
Lich
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Team Liquid 65%Vici Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 22:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
46% · 413 games54% · 211 games
Windrangershiro
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
47% · 438 games54% · 297 games
BatriderFaith_bian
Batrider
Doom
DoomAce
52% · 172 games47% · 537 games
PuckXm
Puck
Oracle
OracletOfu
50% · 83 games49% · 41 game
IoXinQ
Io
Techies
TechiesBoxi
43% · 67 games59% · 87 games
Venomancery`
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct0:0
Team Liquid 68%Vici Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 22:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
53% · 80 games52% · 84 games
Alchemistshiro
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierAce
47% · 248 games49% · 413 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckNisha
47% · 502 games49% · 189 games
Primal BeastFaith_bian
Primal Beast
Elder Titan
Elder TitantOfu
54% · 18 games56% · 185 games
WindrangerXinQ
Windranger
Techies
TechiesBoxi
45% · 62 games53% · 39 games
Lichy`
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 79%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3