Team Liquid vs ViKin.gg — prediction DPC2S—Е1Д 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Liquidwin 2:0

series probability

34%66%

probability at match start · final 2:0

ViKin.ggloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

No games played over 6 months.

ViKin.gg

Beastmasteroften banned

Tobi · 2 games

100%

Bounty Hunter

Aramis · 2 games

100%

Crystal Maiden

Seleri · 2 games

50%

Invokeroften banned

BOOM · 2 games

100%

Oracle

Seleri · 2 games

100%

Batrideroften banned

Tobi · 1 game

100%

Broodmotheroften banned

BOOM · 1 game

Dark Seeroften banned

Tobi · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

69 picks · 149 bans

49%

Puck

58 picks · 165 bans

48%

Earth Spirit

56 picks · 47 bans

62%

Void Spirit

48 picks · 97 bans

56%

Undying

46 picks · 68 bans

58%

Rubick

45 picks · 24 bans

51%

Phoenix

44 picks · 56 bans

54%

Monkey King

43 picks · 94 bans

45%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%

Hero pool strength60% ViKin.gg

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total66% ViKin.gg

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed32:8

Team Liquid 40%ViKin.gg 60%

The model gave 60% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:13.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo