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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 15 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 14 games
36%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 10 games
50%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 15 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 14 games
79%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 13 games
85%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 12 games
83%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
662 picks · 482 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
467 picks · 968 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
385 picks · 475 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
369 picks · 190 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
344 picks · 665 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 558 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
314 picks · 426 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
304 picks · 624 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 75%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:25
Team Liquid 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
50% · 50 games54% · 210 games
LinagpK~
Lina
Tiny
TinymiCKe
50% · 296 games55% · 161 game
DoomRAMZES666
Doom
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzai
42% · 141 game49% · 125 games
NecrophosDM
Necrophos
Snapfire
SnapfireBoxi
48% · 199 games50% · 213 games
Marciyamich
Marci
Io
IoiNSaNiA
55% · 113 games50% · 90 games
DazzleXakoda
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed36:34
Team Liquid 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMATUMBAMAN
52% · 119 games48% · 122 games
Chaos KnightRAMZES666
Chaos Knight
Zeus
ZeusmiCKe
50% · 123 games48% · 298 games
TinygpK~
Tiny
Razor
Razorzai
56% · 194 games48% · 92 games
BatriderDM
Batrider
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyverniNSaNiA
56% · 169 games47% · 88 games
Skywrath MageXakoda
Skywrath Mage
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoxi
45% · 78 games49% · 83 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2