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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 22 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 20 games
65%
Axe
Axe
SabeRLight- · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 19 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
74%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 26 games
65%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 18 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 14 games
43%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daxak · 13 games
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Daxak · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
774 picks · 357 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
597 picks · 300 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
564 picks · 456 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 549 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
547 picks · 676 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 308 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
493 picks · 751 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
483 picks · 548 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:17
Team Liquid 71%Virtus.pro 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
54% · 347 games51% · 326 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
52% · 478 games50% · 391 game
Dragon KnightAbed
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsAce
49% · 385 games47% · 433 games
PangolierSabeRLight-
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlocktOfu
50% · 421 game48% · 399 games
SnapfireFly
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
47% · 108 games51% · 190 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed6:39
Team Liquid 72%Virtus.pro 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
46% · 480 games53% · 288 games
UrsaTimado
Ursa
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
53% · 198 games50% · 424 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Slardar
SlardarAce
50% · 240 games47% · 201 game
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Tusk
TuskBoxi
48% · 536 games48% · 273 games
RingmasterHellscream
Ringmaster
Pugna
PugnatOfu
57% · 210 games47% · 478 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed12:35
Team Liquid 73%Virtus.pro 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
55% · 399 games49% · 273 games
AbaddonTimado
Abaddon
Puck
PuckNisha
43% · 402 games46% · 326 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Lycan
LycanAce
55% · 158 games48% · 204 games
SlardarAbed
Slardar
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBoxi
54% · 163 games48% · 333 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmastertOfu
52% · 271 game50% · 257 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 85%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3