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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 25 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 18 games
44%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 14 games
64%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 17 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Timado · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
541 picks · 811 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 358 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 644 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
451 picks · 569 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
383 picks · 725 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 571 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 468 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 527 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:5
Team Liquid 67%Virtus.pro 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
45% · 58 games55% · 102 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Axe
AxeAce
42% · 244 games56% · 49 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Viper
ViperNisha
54% · 65 games60% · 155 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirentOfu
57% · 174 games43% · 136 games
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoxi
40% · 131 game49% · 230 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed11:29
Team Liquid 68%Virtus.pro 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
53% · 70 games40% · 23 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
51% · 237 games52% · 365 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyNisha
51% · 483 games49% · 177 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagitOfu
56% · 59 games48% · 297 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
40% · 186 games54% · 173 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed10:40
Team Liquid 66%Virtus.pro 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
44% · 29 games54% · 107 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
44% · 260 games52% · 122 games
WindrangerTimado
Windranger
Axe
AxeAce
46% · 140 games50% · 328 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Naga Siren
Naga SirentOfu
65% · 102 games47% · 68 games
Skywrath MageHellscream
Skywrath Mage
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
45% · 119 games51% · 25 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3