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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 19 games
84%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Mirana
Miranasignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
79%

Xtreme Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
JT- · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 10 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JT- · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 8 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
977 picks · 704 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
595 picks · 447 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 443 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
538 picks · 863 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
503 picks · 363 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
494 picks · 348 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
491 picks · 1074 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
486 picks · 1162 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total89% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:37
Team Liquid 75%Xtreme Gaming 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 53:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
48% · 135 games52% · 291 game
DoomJT-
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
56% · 330 games40% · 108 games
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
58% · 219 games49% · 343 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Magnus
Magnuszai
54% · 56 games38% · 45 games
LionKaka
Lion
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
55% · 111 games43% · 64 games
LichDy
Lich
Game 2prediction correct28:4
Team Liquid 76%Xtreme Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
43% · 135 games49% · 98 games
BloodseekerGhost
Bloodseeker
Necrophos
Necrophoszai
50% · 16 games49% · 201 game
PuckPaparazi
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
54% · 143 games47% · 47 games
UnderlordJT-
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
52% · 95 games45% · 16 games
Bounty HunterKaka
Bounty Hunter
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
67% · 5 games54% · 32 games
LichDy
Lich
Game 3prediction correct28:11
Team Liquid 76%Xtreme Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
55% · 47 games49% · 247 games
MarciGhost
Marci
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
43% · 235 games53% · 234 games
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzai
49% · 147 games50% · 101 game
TidehunterJT-
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
48% · 140 games45% · 48 games
LionKaka
Lion
Mirana
MiranaiNSaNiA
54% · 178 games55% · 117 games
PugnaDy
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 89%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3